US sees first negative net migration in decades
The study estimated net migration dropped by between 10,000 and 295,000, reversing decades of population growth fueled by immigration. Researchers attributed the decline to reduced admissions, higher enforcement activity, and increased voluntary departures, noting that policy uncertainty under the Trump administration played a major role.
While removals have been a focus of the administration’s crackdown, the report emphasized that the downturn was primarily driven by fewer people entering the country. Suspension of many humanitarian programs, including most refugee admissions, and a drop in temporary visas also contributed significantly. Removals in 2025 were estimated at 310,000–315,000, slightly higher than the roughly 285,000 removals in 2024.
Most removals were carried out by US Customs and Border Protection rather than Immigration and Customs Enforcement, contrasting with previous years’ patterns.
The report projected that negative net migration is likely to continue into 2026, with potential increases in removals as additional funding under Trump-approved legislation expands enforcement capacity through extra staffing and infrastructure.
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