Tungsten market seen reaching $8.77 billion by 2035 as defense and chip demand tighten supply chains

The global tungsten market is projected to grow from $5.68 billion in 2026 to $8.77 billion by 2035, driven by defense rearmament, semiconductor fab expansion and critical-minerals policy. China’s control of conversion capacity and new export controls are pushing Western buyers to stockpile and invest in new refining capacity.

Why it matters: - Tungsten is shifting from an industrial input to a strategic raw material as defense, semiconductors and critical-minerals policy reshape supply chains. - The market is forecast to rise from $5.68 billion in 2026 to about $8.77 billion by 2035, a 4.95% compound annual growth rate. - Supply concentration in China is driving price volatility, longer lead times and higher inventory costs for buyers outside Asia.

What happened: - Market Research Future said the global tungsten market was valued at an estimated $5.42 billion in 2025. - The report projects market value will reach $6.26 billion by 2028 before climbing to $8.77 billion by 2035. - China controls about 80% of global concentrate conversion, making the country the dominant gatekeeper in tungsten processing. - Beijing added tungsten to its dual-use export control list in February 2025. - Licensing requirements tied to those controls run 45 to 90 days. - Spot ammonium paratungstate prices in Rotterdam rose 34% within two quarters after the export control shift. - Buyers have responded by building six- to nine-month safety stocks.

The details: - The European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act took effect in May 2024 and sets 2030 targets of 10% extraction, 40% processing and 25% recycling for strategic materials including tungsten. - The EU policy has already drawn about EUR 2.1 billion in announced refining capital toward Iberia and Central Europe. - The U.S. allocated $435 million under Defense Production Act Title III for domestic tungsten and refractory metals conversion. - The report says the U.S. is fully reliant on imported concentrate. - Tungsten wires held about 37% of market revenue in 2025, led by use in EDM electrodes and high-temperature furnace heating elements. - Tungsten tubes are projected to grow at a 5.45% CAGR through 2035, helped by aerospace qualification of tungsten-alloy throat inserts for hypersonic propulsion. - Tungsten foils were valued at about $1.21 billion in 2025 for electronics shielding and radiation uses. - Tungsten ribbons held roughly 17.8% of the market, supported by lighting, vacuum and sensor assemblies. - Tungsten carbides accounted for about 48.7% of total volume in 2025. - Cutting tools consume roughly half of all refined tungsten globally. - Cemented carbide inserts are replacing high-speed steel tooling because they last four to six times longer. - Tungsten chemicals are the fastest-growing product form at a 5.85% CAGR, led by ammonium paratungstate and hexafluoride derivatives for semiconductor deposition and catalysts. - Those specialty chemical grades carry premiums of about 3.5 times standard grades. - Qualification for high-purity tungsten chemicals can take 18 to 24 months. - Tungsten alloys were valued at about $1.15 billion in 2025 for defense penetrators and radiation shielding. - Tungsten mill products held about 17.9% of the market and supply electrodes, sputtering targets and furnace hardware. - The automotive sector remained the largest end-use category at about 28% of demand in 2025. - EV production requires roughly 22% more carbide tooling per vehicle than internal-combustion production. - Machine tools and equipment contributed about $1.33 billion in 2025. - The electrical and electronics sector held roughly 21.4% of the market. - Semiconductor fabs rely on tungsten for contact plugs and interconnect barriers in advanced logic nodes. - TSMC, Intel and Samsung have collectively committed more than $380 billion in fab capital spending through 2030. - Fewer than six suppliers worldwide can meet the 99.999% purity requirements for advanced fabs. - Aerospace and defense is the fastest-growing established end-use segment at a 4.92% CAGR. - NATO members have added $118 billion in annual defense spending since 2022. - Other end uses, including batteries, medical imaging and energy, are the fastest-growing category overall at a 5.65% CAGR.

Between the lines: - The report shows a split between where tungsten is mined and where it is converted, which creates a structural supply risk for Western manufacturers. - China’s integrated control across ore, conversion and downstream carbide gives domestic producers an advantage in absorbing shocks that can strand smaller converters elsewhere. - Western policy is trying to rebuild refining and recycling capacity, but the report says no substitution plan can fully close the gap before 2029. - That gap is encouraging buyers to hold more inventory, which protects supply but ties up capital and can blur real demand. - The semiconductor market is emerging as a particularly tight niche because purity requirements and long qualification cycles lock in suppliers.

What’s next: - Asia-Pacific is projected to remain the largest region, with 54.2% of 2025 volume and 5.37% annual growth through 2035. - North America, Europe and other regions are expected to keep pushing for supply resilience through domestic conversion, recycling and mine development. - Defense procurement cycles, fab buildouts and export-control policy are likely to keep tungsten pricing and sourcing under pressure. - New non-Chinese primary supply projects, including South Korea’s Sangdong project and Spain’s Barruecopardo restart, could ease some concentration risk over time.

The bottom line: - Tungsten is becoming a test case for critical-minerals security: demand is rising, but control over conversion and purity may matter more than the ore itself.