AGP Executive Report

Media and Sport: Netflix has secured Spanish and Andorran rights to all 104 matches of the 2030 FIFA World Cup, with one match per day free in Spain and Spain’s games, the semi-finals and final available free-to-air; financial terms were not disclosed. Economic Outlook: The IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast for Spain to 2.5% and projects inflation at 3.7%, while warning that higher energy prices weigh on the global outlook. Public Transport: The government approved €363.7 million for public transport in Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and the Canary Islands in 2026, matching last year’s allocation. Housing: Spain’s rental squeeze deepens as landlords pull properties from the long-term market; reports cite 393,000 homes lost, adding pressure on affordability and policy ahead of the November election.

Growth & Inflation: The IMF expects Spain’s economy to grow 2.5% in 2026, but forecasts a slowdown to 1.8% next year as higher energy and food costs push inflation up to 3.7%. Data-Centre Investment: Developers have surrendered grid-access permits for 1,600 megawatts of capacity after new rules, the CNMC reports—a setback for Spain’s push to attract investment in AI and digital services. Poultry Industry: Grupo Fuertes has acquired Toledo-based processor Nutrave, extending its expansion in Spain’s chicken sector while the founding families retain stakes. Markets: The euro has fallen about 5% this year amid political and fiscal worries across the bloc, adding to pressure from rising energy costs. Transport: Renfe warned of possible further delays on the Madrid–Barcelona line after an AVE train fire in Zaragoza affected thousands of travellers.

Markets and Economy: Spain’s central bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.9%, while lifting its growth outlook to 2.6%; electricity prices have also surged to €342. Public debt has climbed by more than €500 billion since 2018, reaching about €34,000 per resident. Housing: The crisis is shaping the snap-election campaign, with the government reviving rent caps as protests grow and long-term rental supply shrinks. Business and Investment: CaixaBank is teaming up with Google Cloud on AI, while Barcelona-based HTBA has made its first acquisition, buying US biotech firm Specnova. Spain’s €33 billion hydrogen ambition faces a key hurdle: buyers have yet to commit.

Markets: The Ibex 35 rose 1.3% to 19,278 on Monday, leading European markets as bank shares gained; oil remained near $104 a barrel amid Middle East tensions. Housing and politics: Housing costs are shaping Spain’s snap election campaign, set for 29 November. The government has approved modified measures including rent caps and a temporary eviction ban as protests grow. Economic outlook: The Bank of Spain raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.6% but expects inflation to reach 3.9%, with energy costs adding pressure. Tourism: From December, some holiday rentals offering hotel-style services will face VAT, potentially raising accommodation prices. Infrastructure: Ferrovial subsidiary Cintra is part of a consortium awarded a 28-year, €2.9bn Czech motorway public-private partnership.

Retail: IKEA plans to pilot an online secondhand furniture marketplace in Spain and Portugal, testing a new route to compete with resale platforms and extend the life of its products. Industry: Volkswagen chief Oliver Blume says Europe must help create the conditions for the carmaker’s restructuring, backing incentives for local manufacturing as Chinese rivals gain ground. Housing: Spain’s rental squeeze is set to shape the November election, with long-term homes disappearing from the market and the government reviving rent-cap measures. Economic Outlook: The Bank of Spain has raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.6%, but lifted its inflation estimate to 3.9% as energy costs pressure households and businesses; wholesale electricity prices have also surged.

Housing and Politics: Spain’s housing shortage is shaping the November snap election after parliament rejected two government housing decrees. The crisis has intensified following the death of Maricarmen Abascal, whose eviction sparked protests; long-term rental supply has fallen by nearly 400,000 homes since 2018. Economic Outlook: The Bank of Spain lifted its 2026 growth forecast to 2.6% but raised its inflation estimate to 3.9%, citing energy costs and Middle East tensions. Defence Industry: Spain signed a €1 billion loan under the EU’s SAFE programme to support defence investment and industrial capacity; the financing must be repaid and does not itself commit to specific contracts. Tourism: The WTTC urged European governments to speed up digital visas, attract more long-haul visitors and boost investment and skills, as the EU prepares its first dedicated tourism strategy.

Inflation & Growth: The Bank of Spain raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.9% as energy costs and Middle East tensions pressure prices, while lifting its growth outlook to 2.6%. Housing & Politics: The death of eviction victim Maricarmen Abascal has intensified protests as Spain heads toward a snap election. The government has revived rent-cap measures, keeping housing affordability at the centre of the campaign. Energy & Investment: Spain’s competition authority has challenged proposed data-centre rules, calling for more flexibility on renewable-energy requirements—a potential hurdle for a fast-growing investment sector. Corporate Moves: ING is expanding in Spain with a flagship Madrid branch, while Iberdrola has overtaken NextEra to become the world’s largest private electric utility by market value.

Economic Outlook: The Bank of Spain raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.6%, but now expects inflation to reach 3.9%, driven by higher energy costs. Housing & Policy: Housing is set to dominate the snap-election debate as protests grow and Spain has lost nearly 393,000 long-term rental homes since 2018. New rules will also impose VAT on tourist rentals from December 1. Business & Regulation: Tesla has renamed its “Full Self-Driving” feature “Assisted Driving” on its Spanish site after regulators warned the old label could mislead drivers. Tourism: Málaga’s hotel sector is bracing for a tougher autumn after years of record visitor numbers.

Growth Outlook: The Bank of Spain has raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.6%, but housing pressures remain a major risk as the crisis moves to the centre of the November election campaign. Business Costs: Nearly nine in 10 Spanish companies expect raw-material costs to rise, adding pressure as firms face an uncertain economic cycle. Tourism: Málaga hoteliers warn demand is cooling: occupancy is forecast to fall to 81.5% in October and 60.15% in November, prompting possible early closures and staff cuts. Agriculture: Fruit Attraction drew more than 121,000 professionals to Madrid, showcasing a sector that produces over 26 million tonnes a year and earns more than €22 billion from exports. Trade: The EU and China have reached a preliminary deal that could cut Chinese hybrid-car exports to Europe by more than half, with potential consequences for Spain’s automotive industry. Transport: Ouigo drivers have called six strike days across autumn and winter, threatening high-speed services on busy holiday weekends.

Energy: Iberdrola briefly overtook NextEra on October 6, reaching a market value of €141.6 billion and becoming the world’s largest private electric utility before NextEra regained the lead later that day. AI & Jobs: Madrid-based Job&Talent says its AI agents have cut operating costs by more than 30%; the company reports 5 million AI-led interviews and expects EBITDA growth above 100%. Start-ups: Spanish start-ups raised $1.2 billion in the third quarter, as European venture funding hit a four-year high of $25 billion; AI accounted for 75% of the continent’s total. Tourism: WTTC forecasts Spain’s travel and tourism sector will grow 3.7% in 2026, with international visitor spending up 5.3%; Spain recorded $130.1 billion in such spending in 2025. Housing & Politics: The housing crisis is shaping Spain’s November 29 snap election, with the government reviving rent-cap measures and unions planning a nationwide strike on November 11. Holiday rentals also face a new VAT from December 1.

Labour and Housing: Spain’s main unions have called a nationwide strike for November 11, linking low wages to soaring housing costs. The crisis is now central to the November 29 snap election after the death of evicted pensioner Maricarmen and the rejection of housing measures. Tax Burden: A Juan de Mariana Institute report estimates taxes and social contributions take €53.60 of every €100 in Spanish labour costs; the figure uses employers’ total costs, not gross pay. Energy Investment: Spain’s €33bn hydrogen ambition faces a basic hurdle: reports say no buyers have signed up, putting planned projects’ commercial prospects in question. Business and Agriculture: BBVA says it is stepping up customer growth and using AI to strengthen services for companies, while Madrid’s Fruit Attraction fair generated an estimated €419m and more than 3,100 jobs.

Housing and Politics: Unions have called a 24-hour strike for November 11 over housing costs, wages and inflation, as the death of evicted pensioner Maricarmen Abascal intensifies pressure ahead of Spain’s November 29 snap election. Rental Market: Long-term rental listings have fallen 44% since 2018, with Madrid and Catalonia among the hardest-hit areas, tightening supply as rents rise. Industry: Traxys Europe has signed a 10-year exclusive offtake deal for tungsten from Spain’s El Moto project, designated strategic by the EU; production is targeted for 2029. Automotive: Volkswagen is reviewing future investment in SEAT as it shifts focus toward Cupra, leaving the Spanish brand’s long-term model plans uncertain. Renewable Security: A European audit found 2,766 exposed solar systems in Spain, highlighting cybersecurity risks as renewable infrastructure expands.

Housing and Politics: Maricarmen Abascal, 87, has died after her eviction from her Madrid home sparked nationwide protests. Unions have called a nationwide housing strike for November 11, ahead of the November 29 snap election, as Sánchez revives housing measures after earlier proposals were rejected. Storm Recovery: The European Commission has proposed €489 million for Spain, Portugal, Italy and Malta to repair transport links and restore essential services damaged by winter storms and floods. Energy and Industry: Spanish electricity prices have surged to levels last seen in 2022, squeezing household purchasing power, while industrial output rose in August.

Snap Election & Housing Shock: Spain’s government called a snap general election for Nov 29 after parliament rejected urgent housing measures, as protests over evictions and rent costs keep escalating. Holiday Rentals Tax Hit: New BOE rules let stressed-area councils add IBI surcharges on tourist homes of up to 150%, raising bills for multi-property owners. Consumer Protection Clampdown: Spain’s Consumption ministry opened a sanctioning file against a large real estate portal over possible unfair commercial practices, tied to new rental-advertising obligations. SME Digital Billing Delay: Verifactu e-invoicing is pushed back to 2027/2028, giving firms and autónomos more time but leaving uncertainty over requirements. Retail & Circular Economy: IKEA launched a second-hand marketplace for its own furniture/homewares, with prices averaging 60% lower and a Spain/Portugal Buy Back integration trial set for late December. Telecom for SMEs: Vodafone Empresas rolled out “Red Infinity Secured Plus,” bundling fibre, mobile and a virtual PBX for €166.34/month. Energy & Cyber Risk: Researchers found thousands of exposed admin interfaces at European wind/solar sites, with Spain the most affected for solar. Markets Mood: Global stocks rose as oil eased and bond yields steadied, though euro-zone fiscal jitters remain in focus. Wind Orders: Nordex booked 228MW of turbine orders across Europe with long service agreements. Tech & Media: Spotify expands audiobooks to 180+ markets and 120 languages by end-2026.

Housing & Politics: Spain’s government approved 21 urgent housing measures after violent protests in Barcelona, including a €10bn “Tu Casa” first-home loan scheme (up to €50,000, interest-free), eviction protections for vulnerable households, and new rules/taxes targeting seasonal rentals—though the decrees still face parliamentary validation as PM Pedro Sánchez pushes for a snap election on Nov. 29. Energy Costs: Electricity on Spain’s regulated tariff is back above €200/MWh, with OMIE’s pool average at €201.99/MWh and sharp hourly swings feeding into household bills. Economy Watch: Spain’s industrial output rose 1.5% in August (year-on-year +1.6%), led by energy and intermediate goods while durable consumer goods fell. Business & Tech: Orange España secured SBTi validation for net-zero targets by 2040, while Spain is making digital freight control documents mandatory. Markets: European stocks closed higher as investors digested mixed data; Spain’s IBEX 35 rose to 19,444. Transport Disruption: Madrid Metro saw service suspensions on lines 4, 5 and 7 after heavy rain and water accumulation. Tourism & Local Economy: Benidorm hotels closed September above 91% occupancy, and the Costa Blanca kept climbing.

Snap Election Triggered by Housing Clash: Spain’s PM Pedro Sánchez called a snap general election for Nov. 29 after parliament rejected emergency housing measures, with the vote coming amid mass rent protests sparked by high-profile evictions, including the case of 87-year-old Maricarmen Abascal. Euro Under Pressure: The euro hovered near a 17-month low as investors weighed political and fiscal jitters across the euro zone, with France’s bond stress and Spain’s election uncertainty adding to the strain. Power Market Stress Test: Spain and Portugal logged Europe’s highest hours of negative electricity prices in Q2, highlighting how fast solar surges can outpace flexibility in the market. Cybersecurity Watch: Regulators flagged AI-assisted cyberattacks targeting financial firms, identifying malicious IP addresses used across multiple countries, including Spain, and urging urgent internal reviews. Biopharma Investment in Valladolid: Curia plans to expand sterile API manufacturing at its Valladolid site, supporting injectable suspensions and complex sterile formulations, with completion targeted for Q4 2028. Business Sentiment Turns to Long-Term Policy: Spain’s family business community and investors are pushing for stable, consensus-based economic policy—especially on housing—ahead of the political reset.