AGP Executive Report

Banking Watch: BBVA says Q2 net profit rose 11.4% to €3.06bn, helped by Mexico’s 22.8% growth and higher lending income, while provisions increased but the “cost of risk” fell; the bank also announced a €2bn share buyback. Macro Pulse: Spain’s economy grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 (0.6% prior), slightly above forecasts, with annual GDP up 2.7% as tourism stays a key support. Housing & Costs: May home sales fell 11.8% year-on-year to 55,761, while the average price per square metre rose 8.8% to €2,049, and mortgage signings slipped 4%. Tourism Policy: WTTC urges governments to shift from chasing visitor numbers to “destination stewardship” that prioritises resident satisfaction and shared benefits. Wildfire Reality Check: With burned area soaring, guidance highlights practical steps for protecting homes in at-risk zones as heat and blazes disrupt daily life and travel. Tech/Media: Spain’s consumer ministry orders platforms to remove 141 ads for rentals in occupied Palestinian territories. Space & Science Funding: Spain unveils a €1bn package to back La Palma’s bid for the Thirty Metre Telescope, contingent on the consortium choosing the Roque de los Muchachos site.

Wildfire Crisis: Spain’s Sierra Oeste response is shifting from “control” to evacuation and damage-limitation, with Madrid set to pay up to 100% of rent for a year for families displaced by the fires, alongside relocation, repairs, and support for agriculture and tourism. EU Heat Emergency: Across France and Spain, wildfires have displaced about 330,000 people, with France battling blazes up to four times the size of Paris and fatalities reported in Greece as the heatwave tightens its grip. World Cup Power Struggle: FIFA’s plan to sell stakes in a World Cup commercial subsidiary is triggering a potential Europe-wide boycott debate, with UEFA warning FIFA has “crossed a line” and pushing for an emergency summit. Ibex Watch: Spain’s Ibex 35 fell 1.59% as CaixaBank’s results weighed on the index, while Telefónica, Redeia, Aena and Endesa also reported. Real Madrid Finance: Real Madrid posted a record season revenue around $1.3bn, driven by stadium and marketing income, as the club continues its high-stakes transfer planning. FIFA Discipline: FIFA opened disciplinary cases after the 2026 final, including charges involving Argentina players and Spain’s Gavi tied to post-match disorder.

Wildfire Crisis Across Iberia: France and Spain are dealing with record, fast-moving blazes near Bordeaux and around Madrid, with hundreds of thousands evacuated and EU officials warning the response must shift from firefighting to prevention as climate change intensifies heatwaves. Aena Earnings Watch: Spain’s airport operator Aena reported H1 2026 net profit of €1.002bn (+12.1%) and revenue up 10.1%, but flagged limited visibility for the second half amid travel uncertainty. Banking Update: Caixabank said Q2 net profit rose 10.1% to €1.63bn, helped by higher lending income despite higher provisions. EU Trade Policy: The EU imposed definitive anti-dumping duties of 60%–67.6% on polyamide yarn imports from China, targeting injury to producers in several member states including Spain. Football Governance Clash: FIFA’s plan to create a $20bn commercial entity for World Cup operations drew immediate backlash from UEFA and UK political voices, with talk of emergency consultations and possible boycott. Real Madrid Money Story: Real Madrid claimed a new sports revenue record, reporting €1.22bn for 2025-26 despite on-pitch setbacks. Logistics & Ports: Hutchison Ports BEST expanded Navarra’s intermodal terminal with a €10m upgrade to boost rail capacity and connect more freight via Barcelona.

World Cup Governance Clash: UEFA rejected FIFA’s reported plan to sell minority stakes in a new $20bn company (FIFA Forward Enterprise) to private investors, saying the World Cup “is not FIFA’s to sell,” as FIFA says the entity would raise up to $4.2bn for development. Public Finance Watch: Spain’s Court of Auditors flagged a €490m loss tied to derivatives contracted by state public companies between 2016-2023, with swaps linked to Euribor used as “insurance” but misaligned with low/negative rate periods. Wildfire Fallout in Spain: Major blazes around Madrid and beyond are hitting livelihoods and tourism, including livestock feed shortages and heavy damage to the Real Club Náutico de Madrid’s sailing fleet at San Juan Reservoir. Energy & Industry: The government approved €17.9m extra to accelerate electrical networks to 2030, while ACCIONA sold a 361MW wind portfolio in Spain. Sports Business: Real Madrid confirmed record 2025-26 revenue strength, with operating revenue (ex transfers) at €1.221bn and stadium revenue up 11%. Digital Payments & Travel: Emirates expanded Skywards with Skywards Rail, letting members redeem miles for train journeys across Europe.

Wildfire Emergency: France and Spain are racing to contain “monster” blazes as a new heatwave looms, with evacuations hitting about 320,000 people combined and Bordeaux threatened while Spain’s Avila fire is reported as the largest on record. Housing Pressure in the South: A new Andalucian Barometer puts affordable housing at the top of residents’ worries (22.2%), ahead of healthcare and unemployment, adding to the political and economic strain. Anti–Money Laundering Overhaul: Spain’s Council of Ministers is set to approve a draft law creating ANIFI, a single national authority to supervise, inspect and sanction money-laundering and terrorism-financing cases, aligning with the EU’s 2024 package. Renewables in Transport: Bosch, Toyota, BMW and Repsol launch a six-month Spanish pilot using 100% renewable gasoline in everyday driving, with Bosch’s Digital Fuel Twin tracking fuel data for “digital transparency.” Business & Courts: Spain’s Supreme Court has admitted appeals tied to Highfield Resources’ Muga potash project concession process, keeping the legal review moving while the company cuts costs to preserve liquidity. Tech Funding: Multiverse Computing secures up to $570m in Series C funding, valuing it at $1.7bn pre-money, as it pushes “sovereign” and efficient AI.

Wildfire Shock to Spain’s Economy & Travel: More than 330,000 people have been evacuated across France and Spain as “monster” blazes threaten tourist hubs, roads and flights, with fresh orders near Toledo and continued firefighting around Bordeaux; officials warn heatwave conditions could worsen the situation. Banking Oversight: The Bank of Spain fined Cajamar and its management €2.8m over errors in variable compensation, adding pressure on governance and pay controls. Energy & Industry Moves: DHL eCommerce agreed to buy Baltic parcel operator Venipak, boosting last-mile reach in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Auto & EV Shift: EU car data shows plug-in vehicles now lead new sales (BEVs 20.7% plus PHEVs 9.8%), underlining the squeeze on traditional fuel-only models. Defense Tech: BAE is developing the Brontanax loyal wingman drone for UK military trials, with first flight targeted for 2027. Football Business: Real Madrid’s transfer plans keep swirling—Rodri talks and the Yan Diomande deal narrative—while Vinícius contract uncertainty fuels market speculation.

Wildfire Emergency: France and Spain are battling “monster” wildfires that have driven more than 325,000 people from homes, with a fresh heatwave forecast and Bordeaux-area tourist accommodation shut as flames edge closer to the city. Housing Policy: Spain’s government is set to approve an automatic two-year extension for long-term rental contracts expiring before 30 June 2028, alongside tighter rules for tourist lets. Tourism Wages Gap: Despite record tourism for the third straight year, the Canary Islands still sit near the bottom on pay, with average annual wages of €23,264 in 2025. EV/Industry Deal: Hutchison Ports BEST opened a €10m Navarra intermodal terminal, tripling capacity, while HyFive signed an e-methanol supply term sheet for 10,000 mt/year from its HyMet Musel project. Football & Business: Real Madrid moved closer to signing Yan Diomande from Leipzig as PSG withdrew, while Vinícius Jr’s future remains tied to a reported £137m price tag.

Wildfire Crisis in Spain: Spain’s emergency response is under strain as deadly wildfires near Madrid force mass evacuations and expand across multiple provinces, with the King and Queen visiting evacuees and praising “exemplary coordination” while PM Sánchez warns of “difficult hours” ahead. EU Sanctions & Firefighting Capacity: A political claim says EU anti-Russia sanctions are blocking Spain’s use of Russian Ka-32 helicopters, limiting firefighting options and spare parts. Transfer Market Shockwaves: Real Madrid are reportedly close to an agreement for RB Leipzig winger Yan Diomandé after PSG walked away, with the deal expected to top €100m; the move could ripple through Arsenal’s pursuit of Vinícius Júnior, whose contract talks remain uncertain. Arsenal’s Big-Payout Push: Reports say Arsenal are willing to offer Vinícius more than his current Real Madrid salary, while also monitoring other targets like Julian Alvarez and Diomandé. Tourism & Business Disruption: Wildfires are also hitting European travel and local commerce, including Bordeaux-area businesses reporting smoke and ash and a drop in activity.

Tourism Shift: Heat-weary Europeans are “coolcations” hunting, with searches for Copenhagen and Dublin surging as travellers flee 40C Mediterranean conditions. Wildfire Crisis: Spain and France remain in emergency mode as winds and extreme heat drive fast-moving blazes, forcing mass evacuations and stretching response capacity. EV & Auto Industry: Ford and Geely plan a Valencia joint venture to build low- and zero-emission vehicles, targeting new electric SUVs from 2028 as Chinese competition reshapes Europe’s auto market. Energy Security: Algeria’s expanded gas deal with Germany underlines Europe’s push to replace Russian supply, with key volumes and pricing still undisclosed. Public Health & Regulation: Spain’s proposed smoking and vaping restrictions could bring up to €600 fines for tourists, tightening outdoor rules on terraces, beaches and parks. Luxury Real Estate: Off-market sales are rising in Spain’s high-end property market, with discreet multimillion-euro deals in Madrid reflecting demand for privacy. Sports Business: Atletico Madrid signs Lee Kang-in on a five-year deal, while Real Madrid’s Vinícius contract talks keep transfer speculation alive.

Wildfire Emergency: Spain and France are battling fast-moving blazes that have displaced over 270,000 people, with France deploying military support and Spain declaring a national emergency as smoke reaches Madrid and evacuations expand. Overtourism Crackdown: Barcelona is pushing back on mass tourism with higher cruise visitor taxes for stays under 12 hours, aiming to send a “not one tourist more” message amid local anger over housing and transport strain. Real Madrid Transfer Drama: Vinícius Júnior’s stalled renewal keeps Arsenal linked to a possible summer move, while José Mourinho signals he wants key stars kept—yet Real are also weighing other targets like Yan Diomande as contract uncertainty grows. Barcelona Squad Shake-up: Barcelona’s women’s and men’s teams keep losing stars, with Salma Paralluelo moving to Lyon and the club facing pressure to rebuild after its Champions League success. Geopolitics: Spain reiterates condemnation of West Bank settler violence and calls for de-escalation and accountability. Labour Market Snapshot: OECD data puts Spain among the highest unemployment rates in the bloc (10.3% in May), highlighting ongoing structural pressure.

Wildfire Crisis: Spain has declared a national emergency as a blaze west of Madrid merges with other fires, leaving it “beyond” firefighters’ capacity and forcing about 25,000 evacuations plus 40,000 told to stay indoors, with another 20,000 indoors as crews focus on defensive protection. EU Response: In France, evacuations near Bordeaux have surged to almost 60,000, bringing the combined total across France and Spain to over 220,000, with Macron mobilising the military and seeking EU help. Industrial Safety Incident: Separately, an industrial fire in Essex turned into a major incident after fertiliser exploded inside a unit, prompting evacuations and heavy firefighting efforts. Auto Sector & China Pressure: Volkswagen’s CEO warned cost cuts must deepen as Chinese rivals intensify pressure in Europe, with up to 100,000 job cuts and potential closure of four German plants after 2030. EV Supply Chain Politics: Ford and Geely’s plan to build EVs in Spain drew US political criticism over China-linked supply-chain dependence. Labour Market Snapshot: Spain is listed among the OECD’s highest-unemployment countries (10.3% in 2026), highlighting persistent structural joblessness. Tech & Cyber: UK-linked agencies warn of a Russian-backed “beehive” email campaign targeting Zimbra webmail users, urging urgent patching and monitoring.

Automotive Deal: Ford and Geely have agreed a Europe-focused joint venture to build low- and zero-emission vehicles at Ford’s Valencia plant, with Ford holding 66% and Geely 34%; production is slated to start in 2028 and includes a new “multi-energy” crossover plus Geely electric SUVs. Legal & Rail Competition: Spain’s TACRC has annulled key clauses in Renfe’s plan to set up a bus company for rail disruptions after complaints from coach employers, ordering the tender procedure to be rolled back. Energy Tech: WiseGlow pitched its AI-native energy platform in Munich, targeting Spanish solar and storage operators with tools aimed at boosting performance and cutting costs. Wildfire Crisis: Madrid and southern Europe face major wildfire pressure, with Spain’s Community of Madrid ordering new evacuations and reinforcing healthcare capacity as flames overwhelm firefighting resources. Sports Integrity: Spain’s World Cup opener vs Cape Verde is now tied to a match-fixing probe after betting-monitoring flagged the result as suspicious. Aviation Connectivity: Cathay Pacific will add Santo Domingo to its codeshare network via Madrid, expanding long-haul options for the Dominican Republic. Consumer/Travel: Spain’s new anti-smoking rules are set to expand smoke-free areas to terraces and beaches, with fines highlighted for tourists.

Spain-China trade & diplomacy: A Spanish MEP urges the EU to “relaunch” ties with Beijing via dialogue, warning against a trade “bazooka” as Brussels tries to ease tensions. Auto industry & jobs: Ford and Geely formalised a Europe-focused JV at Ford’s Valencia plant to build multi-energy vehicles, with Geely taking 34% and the first models due in 2028; the deal is framed as a way to lift plant utilisation. EU-US trade shock: The US moves ahead with new double-digit tariffs on dozens of countries, including the EU, as forced-labour enforcement claims drive the latest round. Energy transition & storage: CATL signed a 2 GWh sodium-ion battery supply deal for Central and Eastern Europe, pushing low-temperature performance and faster deployment outside China. Defence procurement: Spain is extending the service life of its F-18 fleet to 2040, commissioning Indra to build avionics test benches after FCAS collapse and fighter shortages. Climate & risk: Wildfires across southern Europe have forced thousands to evacuate, with extreme heat and drought worsening the crisis. Business & markets: Asia stocks slid on sell-offs in AI-related shares as Brent pushed near $100 a barrel. Corporate Spain: Havas reported 2.5% organic growth in H1 2026, with North America and India offsetting weakness in parts of Asia-Pacific. Sports-business crossover: Manchester City denied Real Madrid made an official offer for Rodri, despite renewed summer speculation.

Auto Industry & Trade: Ford and Geely have agreed a Europe-focused joint venture to build low- and zero-emission vehicles at Ford’s Valencia plant, with Ford holding 66% and Geely 34%, aiming for production from 2028 (pending approvals) and designed to help Geely sidestep EU tariff pressure on China-made EVs. Energy & Climate Risk: Spain is battling major wildfires while a new heatwave pushes red alerts across the south and central regions, with Guadalajara’s blaze burning over 32,000 hectares and evacuations reported. Big Tech Regulation: The EU hit Google with €890m in Digital Markets Act fines over search bias and restrictions on app developers steering users to cheaper offers outside Google Play. Sports Economy & Taxes: Spain’s World Cup win keeps echoing in business circles as analysts warn that a large share of the $50m prize could face US tax exposure for players and staff. Corporate Moves: Apleona has bought a majority stake in Sygna Holdings, expanding commissioning and technical project management capacity across Europe, including Spain. Finance & Restructuring: A Spanish SME case highlights how profitable firms can still fall into liquidity stress, with restructuring recovering €127,500 in 120 days. Labour & Mobility: Frontier workers say they’re struggling to claim unemployment benefits in Spain after the UK treaty changes, calling for clearer instructions. Wild Card: VivaGym plans to expand in Portugal toward 100+ clubs by 2030, ramping up competition for local gym operators.

Markets Watch: European stocks edged higher as UK inflation cooled more than expected, easing pressure on rates, while investors tracked higher oil prices after US strikes on Iran. Spain Policy & Health: Spain is set to expand its anti-smoking rules to terraces, beaches and more outdoor areas, with proposed fines up to €600 and tighter limits for under-18s. Energy & Power Markets: Solar PPA prices in Europe are diverging, with Spain flagged for curtailment and “price cannibalisation,” pushing developers toward lower PPA strike prices. Auto Industry: Geely has confirmed it will take over part of Ford’s Almussafes plant near Valencia, a deal framed by excess capacity and a new energy-vehicle push. Banking & Tech: Santander says AI initiatives created €84m in business value in H1 and targets over $1bn from 2025-2028. Crime & Finance: Guardia Civil probes a bank scam after alleged data on ~500,000 people surfaced, following losses of nearly €30,000 by a victim. Business Travel & Payments: Expensify expands its corporate card into Spain and other EU markets, while Spain’s banks roll out in-store contactless payment features. Wildfire & Climate: Spain faces escalating wildfire damage in heatwave conditions, with major areas scorched in Guadalajara.

Wildfire Crisis: Spain’s biggest wildfires in years are forcing evacuations in Guadalajara province, with Sánchez warning the climate emergency can’t be ignored. Banking M&A: Santander says it’s still confident its $12.3bn deal to buy Webster Financial will close this year, after ECB approval and with the Fed still to sign off. Auto Industry: Ford and Geely struck a deal to produce EVs at Ford’s Almussafes plant near Valencia, aiming to protect jobs and cut costs. EV Market: New data shows European BEV registrations surged nearly 40% in June, pushing EV share past 25% and first-half sales above 1.24m. Anti-Tobacco Law: Spain moves to expand smoking and vaping bans to terraces and beaches, triggering pushback from businesses in places like Mallorca. ESG & Finance: Ebury marked its first Values Day, highlighting ESG progress and financial inclusion plans. Sports Business: Spain’s World Cup win brings a record prize, but reports warn part of the payout could be hit by US taxes. Digital Regulation: China protested the EU’s €550m fine on AliExpress under the Digital Services Act, saying it’s discriminatory.